Key Insights from the June 2025 Export Breakfast

On Wednesday, June 5, 2025, Business Canterbury hosted an Export Breakfast featuring key industry leaders:

• Simon Dedman – Managing Director of Kuehne+Nagel NZ and Vice President, Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders Federation of New Zealand (CBAFF)
• Dr Onur Koska – International Trade Expert, University of Canterbury
• Rob McKenzie-Carroll - COO, Hamilton Jet

The event explored how exporters can not only survive but also capitalise on the turbulence reshaping global trade. With new tariffs, shifting alliances, and disrupted supply chains, this session offered insights and strategies necessary to remain competitive in a volatile world.

Key Discussion Points

1. Global Trade Disruptions and Tariff Impacts:  Simon Dedman provided a strategic update on the intensifying disruption in global supply chains, driven largely by shifting US trade policy. He noted that the reintroduction of steep tariffs - most notably a 145% levy on Chinese imports - has triggered market volatility and driven global shipping costs to near pandemic-era highs. The situation is compounded by shipping lines shifting to a spot-market approach, prioritising profit over contracted rates, which is distorting freight flows.

While a temporary 90-day pause has slowed the pace of tariff escalation, long-term uncertainty remains high. With China and Vietnam representing over half of all US container imports, the impact is being deeply felt across the sector. He said New Zealand should prepare for flow-on effects within the next 3–6 months, including equipment shortages and growing delays. Further cost pressures loom, with new US levies on Chinese-built and operated vessels expected to add up to US$2 billion in additional global freight costs from 2025.

2. Economic Perspective on Tariffs: Dr. Onur Koska offered a macroeconomic perspective on the broader implications of import tariffs, highlighting their structural and behavioural impacts on global trade. He outlined the core purposes behind tariffs - restriction, revenue, and reciprocity - while cautioning that they often lead to market inefficiencies by distorting both production and consumption.

Dr. Koska noted that the full cost of tariffs is typically passed on to consumers, as seen in the 2018 tariff rounds, with exporters rarely absorbing the impact. The current environment, he warned, bears striking resemblance to the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s, which triggered retaliatory responses and a collapse in global trade volumes. For businesses, the volatility and lack of clarity around trade policy are creating significant operational challenges, forcing ongoing re-optimisation and limiting strategic planning.

3. Manufacturing and Export Strategies: Rob McKenzie Carroll outlined how Hamilton Jet is adapting its export and manufacturing strategy amid rising global tariff pressures. As a Christchurch-based exporter with 95% of products sent offshore, the company has had to undertake a major compliance review - assessing 17,000 SKUs for correct HS codes and country-of-origin classifications. Sharp tariff hikes, such as the doubling of Section 232 duties on steel and aluminium, are directly impacting input costs. To manage risk, Hamilton Jet has also shifted shipping terms for US-bound goods from DAP to CIF. He emphasised the growing complexity of global trade logistics and the need for deeper understanding among customers, many of whom mistakenly believe tariffs are absorbed by governments or suppliers, rather than passed through the supply chain.

4. Opportunities for New Zealand Exporters: Despite global trade volatility, speakers highlighted strong opportunities for New Zealand exporters to thrive. Demand for high-quality New Zealand products remains strong, particularly in the US - where New Zealand wine leads imported sales - and across Asia Pacific, where consumers are shifting towards premium goods. Diversifying export markets is now critical. New trade agreements, such as with the UAE, offer access to untapped regions, while New Zealand’s global reputation for quality and resilience positions it well amid ongoing disruptions.

Actionable Steps for Local Exporters

The speakers provided practical recommendations for New Zealand businesses looking to navigate global trade uncertainties:

• Stay agile: Build flexibility into production to reduce renegotiation risks.

• Diversify supply chains to improve resilience and lower disruption costs.

• Expand into new markets to reduce exposure to region-specific tariffs.

• Differentiate products to reduce customer price sensitivity.

• Ensure accurate data on country of origin and HS codes.

• Communicate early with customers about potential cost impacts.

• Tap into support from NZTE, MFAT, and Business Canterbury.

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We hope you enjoyed this update, if you would like to attend the next Export Breakfast or keep up to date with our latest events visit our What's On page to keep up to date.